NOAA Shares Official Winter 2026-2027 Outlook For Wisconsin

If you even only casually pay attention to the weather, you've probably heard talk about how a particularly strong El Niño is expected for this winter.

The warm area of water in the Pacific can really mess with weather patterns all across the country, including what is normally expected during a Wisconsin winter.

As the winter of 2026-2027 approaches, the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center put out their winter outlook, outlining what they think will happen with weather trends

These seasonal outlooks forecast two things: general temperature expectations and general precipitation expectations.

I like to describe these as "broad brushstrokes" forecasts. They give the overall direction they think the weather will go during the season. It is still possible we'll see variations from the overall trends they're expecting.

Here's a look at what they're thinking for Wisconsin this winter:

Wisconsin's Winter 2026-2027 Temperature Outlook

Depending on how you like your winter, you may love or hate this. One thing that seems pretty likely is warmer-than-normal temperatures across the state throughout the upcoming winter season.

The vast majority of Wisconsin has a pretty strong likelihood of warmer-than-normal temperatures this winter. the "exception" to that is Southwestern Wisconsin, where there is still a likelihood, but just not quite a strong.

The thing to remember with this is that "normal" is a relative term.

For example, the average temperature in January in Madison, Wisconsin might be 27 degrees. This forecast points to a likelihood of seeing a warmer average than that this winter. Not necessarily 40s or warmer all winter, just a likelihood of warmer than the average.

Wisconsin's Winter 2026-2027 Precipitation Outlook

One thing is less certain with the precipitation situation for this winter, while another is more certain.

The less-certain part of the precipitation outlook for this winter is the amount of precipitation Wisconsin can expect this winter. the Northeastern part of the state sees a slight favorability for less-than-normal amounts of precipitation, while the rest of Wisconsin has equal chances of less-than-normal, more-than-normal, or normal amounts of precipitation.

The one thing that seems more certain is a greater likelihood of rain, mixed precipitation, or freezing rain events this winter with the likelihood of warmer-than-normal temperatures across the state.

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Does that mean it won't snow at all this winter in Wisconsin? Not at all. But it does mean there are higher chances of messier and more "gross" types of precipitation than just plain old snow this winter.

Woohoo.

Again, this is a broad brushstroke forecast. Wisconsin could still see cold snaps and snowstorms in the face of this milder winter outlook. That said, be prepared for all of the above this winter...but that's pretty much the approach that has to be followed every winter, isn't it?