Updates On Northland Large Hail, Damaging Winds, Tornado Threats For Wednesday

Yesterday, I shared details about this week's severe weather threat for Minnesota and Wisconsin, highlighting Wednesday as the day experts believe will be a pretty active weather day. We are getting a clearer picture now of what to expect.

Looking at weather impacts in the Northland, two waves of thunderstorms are expected, with the first round brewing up late tonight (Tuesday night) across the Dakotas and Western Minnesota, reaching the Iron Range, Duluth - Superior area, and Northwestern Wisconsin overnight, expected to arrive sometime between 3 am and 6 am on Wednesday morning.

This first round of storms is anticipated to be the weaker of the two lines of storms in the Northland, but it still brings with it the chance of damaging winds, some large hail, an isolated tornado, and some heavy rain.

Later in the day on Wednesday is when things are expected to cook up for a second, stronger round of storms. When and how these storms develop will be impacted by what the early morning storms do, but the Duluth office of the National Weather Service, along with the Storm Prediction Center, is pretty confident things could get bumpy in the afternoon and early evening hours.

NOAA Storm Prediction Center

The Twin Ports area, Grand Rapids, Ashland, Hayward, and places south are in the orange "Enhanced" risk area for storms, which means numerous severe storms are possible.

Heavy rain is possible with these storms, with flash flooding a potential risk across the region. Other risks include large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Here's a breakdown of each of those risks and where they are expected.

Large Hail Risks

NOAA Storm Prediction Center

Breaking down the individual storm risks, large hail up to 2 inches in diameter is one of the things to be on the lookout for, particularly earlier in the lifecycle of these storms.

The area in red in the map above, which includes the Twin Ports area, Two Harbors, Grand Rapids, Ashland, Hayward, and places south are in the area of greatest risk for this large hail potential.

Tornado Risks

NOAA Storm Prediction Center

While there is a potential tornado risk across most of Minnesota and all of Wisconsin during Wednesday afternoon & evening's storms, Duluth & Superior, Brainerd, and Ashland are at the northern edge of an area of a 5-9% tornado probability.

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In the hashed area, which is just south of the Twin Ports, including places like Hayward, Hinckley, Park Falls, and Rice Lake, the National Weather Service believes there is a risk for strong tornadoes at least EF2 in intensity.

The area in yellow, which is outside of the scope of the Northland, includes places like La Crosse, Rochester, and Eau Claire, see an even larger probability of tornadoes, from 10-14%.

Damaging Winds Risks

NOAA Storm Prediction Center

Pretty much all of Minnesota and Wisconsin have the potential of seeing damaging winds with the storms that develop on Wednesday, but the further eastward you go, the greater the potential of powerful, damaging winds.

Wind gusts up to 70 mph are possible across the area in yellow, which includes Grand Rapids, Walker, Brainerd, and Hinckley, and the hatched area could see up to 80 mph wind gusts. This includes Duluth, Superior, Two Harbors, Hibbing, Ely, and Grand Marais.

As these storms continue to progress, they are expected to develop into bowing lines of storms, which is when and where the greatest damaging winds risk is expected. The area where this is expected to happen is marked in red, which includes Ashland, Hayward, Park Falls, Rice Lake, and a sizable amount of the rest of Wisocnsin.